A Spatio-temporal Stochastic Model for an Emerging Plant Disease Spread in a Heterogeneous Landscape

Black Leaf Streak Disease (BLSD) is the most severe foliar disease of banana and plantain. BLSD caused by Pseudocercospora fijiensis, an ascomycete fungus which produces wind-borne spores responsible for its spatial dispersal. In order to evaluate long-distance dispersal better understand effect environmental factors on invasive spread, a spatio-temporal study was set up during recent invasion in Martinique island (FWI). detection carried out from September2010 May 2012 sampling squares were defined regular grid built over island. this paper, we consider stochastic model propagation heterogeneous landscape present mathematical computational results continuous-time model. Statistical inference parameters presence-absence data using Bayesian framework based augmentation method with respect square first colonization times. Parameter posterior distribution calculations made possible evaluation land-cover influence propagation. Our enabled re-enactment invasion.